Will it also reduce the number of persons eventually infected? For readers interested in the above questions, this piece is intended as an update to my earlier post Contractor, March 20, with additional references from medical experts and economists.
I also caution below that there are no definitive answers yet Knowledge Wharton, March 24, and the estimates in the scholarly references below should be read with circumspection. What a government means by this — and it is an admission of unpreparedness — is that, unchecked, infections would grow at an exponential rate so as to exceed the capacity of hospitals to cope with the numbers of patients. For a graph and additional details, see my earlier post Contractor, F. By forcing quarantines and social distancing, governments hope that the growth of the infections will slow to a rate that remains below the maximum capacity of hospital beds, equipment such as ventilators, and doctors and nurses available in their region or country.
If not, the medical establishment will be overwhelmed. For a while, it happened in Wuhan and Hubei Province, whereupon the Chinese government introduced a severe lockdown on January 23, While restrictions are being gradually eased in Hubei, scant signs of an economic recovery there are evident as yet. Candidly, we have no definitive answers as yet.
While economic papers e. For example:. For Belgium, the mean is 44, but the confidence interval ranges from 18to This is true for most of the countries studied. Only history will judge whether the trade-off was appropriate. For International Business, will be remembered as an inflexion point that adjusted or restructured MNC operations, global value-chains, the role of governments in regulating foreign direct investment FDI , protectionism, the change in the behavior of managers to take risks i.
Will globalization retreat? Probably not. March 26, Data gaps and the policy response to the novel coronavirus No. National Bureau of Economic Research. The Economist April 1, Daily Chart: Covid may be far more prevalent than previously thought. The Economist March 31, Daily Chart: Lessons from the Spanish flu: social distancing can be good for the economy. Geneva: United Nations. World Health Organization accessed April 2, Climate Change and Human Health.
Your email address will not be published. Learn more about us and how to become a member. Become a Member Contact Search for:. Contractor Published May 27, T Share This:. For example: Using the pandemic experience as an example is hardly analogous. The coronavirus is different, and its virulence, mutation rate, propensity to linger in warmer weather, persistence, and return are unknowns at present. The world of is vastly more globalized and interdependent than ever before.
Supply chains in world trade are orders-of-magnitude more complex. Subcomponents, parts, and components cross country borders multiple times before being finally assembled, all under the aegis of multinational companies MNCs. Equally remarkably, the same MNC was both the importer and the exporter i. Companies, municipalities, and individuals are more vulnerable because, tempted by historically low interest rates post, many borrowed recklessly, and their leverage or debt:equity ratios are dangerously near record highs Srivastava, Epidemiological modeling e.
The world population is at an all-time high of 7. Crowding or urbanization now includes over 60 percent of humanity, which is at a record level. Average temperatures worldwide are higher, which may decrease the incidence of certain viruses, but increase disease transmission in general World Health Organization, ; Luber, et al.
In , 4. In Conclusion: Will Globalization Retreat? Comments Leave a Reply Cancel reply Your email address will not be published. ARCS serves as a vehicle for advancing rigorous academic research on corporate sustainability issues.
He refers to ten "flatteners": things that have enabled us to connect with the rest of the world much more easily than ever before. Events such as the fall of the Berlin wall, Netscape going public, and the new world of "technologies on steroids" -- cell phones, wireless devices, always being connected, and so on -- have made our world a new place.
Key players, thanks to new tools, can play new roles in new ways. A leveled playing field has been created. Employees from one organization are no longer working side-by-side inside the same building.
Individuals from anywhere can compete with others from around the world. This convergence gives a new feel to how successful twenty-first-century businesses operate and how twenty-first-century learners can learn. The information given helps view his amazing perspective of how much connected every individuals have become all around the world and how the world has compressed into a flatten world compared to the previous eras.
Trade, speed, economics, globalization, and much more has been effected tremendously through the eras and with these two examples Friedman argues strongly with great support.
In truth, the world is not nearly as connected as these writers would have us believe. Despite talk of a new, wired world where information, ideas, money, and people can move around the planet faster than ever before, just a fraction of what we consider globalization actually exists.
As one example, Facebook, people usually tend to friend request friends in the local area and of course the small percentage of family that may be in other parts of the world.
Another example is based on trade, globalization affects trade in many levels. Its based on travel such as ships to airplanes and to delivery trucks.
In order to support this evidence Ghemawat informs the reader that a product such a an Apple iPod is shipped from Japan to China and its way to the United States. The shipping of this single products can sometimes be counted triple although, its only one trip to its destination. With all the facts and opinions that are set to Ghemawat theory it certainly does fully support his main argument.
Ghemawat demonstrates a well view theory with numbers, and numbers are most of the time correct.
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